Islamabad, 3 November, 2026 (Kamran Raja): Texas, a traditionally Republican stronghold, is facing the possibility of a historic political shift as Democrats make significant gains ahead of the US midterm elections, with changing Hispanic voter preferences putting a Republican-held Senate seat and Governor Greg Abbott’s position under pressure. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994 and has consistently supported Republican presidential candidates since 1980. However, recent opinion polls suggest that the state could turn partly or even entirely blue, largely due to public concerns over President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and growing economic pressure on working families. Hispanic voters, who supported Trump by around 10 percentage points in Texas in 2024, now appear to be shifting towards the Democrats. A survey conducted by the Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race among Hispanic voters by 63 percent to 30 percent, while Democrat Gina Hinojosa was ahead of Abbott in the gubernatorial contest by 60 percent to 33 percent. The same survey placed Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic voters at 33 percent, with nearly two-thirds saying they were less likely to support candidates backing his deportation policies. The changing political mood has put the Republican Party at risk of losing a Senate seat it has held for years. RealClearPolling’s average showed Talarico leading Paxton by 49 percent to 46.5 percent, while a New York Times/Siena poll gave him a seven-point advantage. However, a Trafalgar Group survey showed the candidates tied at 48 percent. Abbott is also facing a closer contest than expected despite his substantial financial advantage. His campaign had spent more than $54.5 million by August and held over $67 million in cash, while Hinojosa had spent less than $4 million. Nevertheless, RealClearPolling showed Abbott leading by only 2.3 percentage points, while New York Times/Siena and AtlasIntel surveys placed Hinojosa one point ahead. Voter turnout, particularly among Hispanic and younger communities, is expected to play a decisive role in the outcome. Meanwhile, betting activity on the midterm elections has reached unprecedented levels, with prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket recording approximately $479 million in trading volume across five major election markets. Around $166.4 million was traded on the balance of power in Congress, while nearly $150 million was linked to control of the House of Representatives and more than $50 million to the Senate. The two Texas contests attracted approximately $111.8 million in trading, including $92 million on the Senate race and $19.8 million on the governor’s contest. Market expectations have also tilted towards the Democrats, with Kalshi contracts indicating stronger prospects for Talarico than Paxton, while Abbott’s projected chances of winning have declined. However, prediction-market prices do not represent actual voter support and can change rapidly. The reported figures reflect total trading volume, including contracts traded multiple times, rather than the amount of money placed at one particular moment. While supporters consider prediction markets an additional indicator of electoral trends, critics warn that betting on elections could turn the democratic process into a financial gamble. The results are expected to determine whether Texas maintains its long-standing Republican dominance or becomes the centre of a major political realignment.