KYIV, 8 October, 2026 (Kamran Raja): Ukraine is facing an increasingly serious shortage of combat-ready troops as the war with Russia enters its fifth year, with military commanders and analysts warning that some front-line units are operating at only half strength. Despite Ukraine’s advances in drone technology and battlefield tactics, the shortage of personnel is limiting its ability to exploit those advantages and launch sustained operations. Commanders say exhausted soldiers cannot be rotated frequently enough because there are not enough reserves to replace them, increasing casualties and weakening military effectiveness. Long-standing mobilisation problems, including draft evasion and desertion, have further complicated efforts to replenish Ukraine’s forces. The Defence Ministry is seeking to address the problem through reforms to mobilisation, military training, contracts and the organisation of army units, while officials acknowledge that there are simply not enough personnel available. Military analysts say weaker formations suffer heavier losses, creating a cycle of high attrition and constant recruitment and deployment of replacements. Some Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly spent up to a year on the front line with limited opportunities for rotation. A deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion said his unit was operating at about half strength while its area of responsibility had doubled, leaving the same number of troops to defend roughly twice the territory. Ukraine’s pool of eligible men has also declined because of demographic changes, displacement and migration caused by the war.
Official figures indicate that around one million people serve in Ukraine’s armed forces, although only a fraction are deployed at the front. Ukraine has also struggled with desertion, with officials previously estimating that hundreds of thousands of soldiers had left their units without authorisation. Analysts say the problem is not only the number of personnel but also how troops are managed, trained and deployed. Exhaustion, poor organisation, inadequate training and uncertainty over the length of military service are contributing to desertions and declining effectiveness. Despite the manpower shortage, Ukrainian forces remain capable of conducting limited localised offensives and have retaken territory in areas including near Lyman and Dnipropetrovsk. However, analysts say these operations are too limited to fundamentally alter the wider battlefield balance. Russia has occupied roughly 990 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory since the beginning of 2026, while Ukrainian forces have retaken about 820 square kilometres, according to figures cited by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Defence analysts say the broader front line is likely to remain largely unchanged unless Ukraine succeeds in addressing its personnel shortages and improving the organisation and deployment of its forces.